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The Bank of Canada has made headlines once again by cutting its overnight policy rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 4.25%. This marks the third consecutive rate cut since June, and while the move aims to manage inflation and support economic growth, it also has significant implications for Canada’s housing market.
How the Rate Cut Affects Mortgage Rates
For many Canadians, the most immediate impact of the rate cut will be felt in variable mortgage rates. With the Bank of Canada lowering its policy rate, commercial banks have followed suit by reducing their prime rates. This directly influences variable-rate mortgages, making them more attractive to both homebuyers and current homeowners looking to refinance.
Variable-rate mortgages, which had lost favour during the previous rate-hiking cycle, are regaining traction. As the economy shifts, borrowers are beginning to benefit from lower rates, which could translate to reduced monthly payments. This trend is especially beneficial for those with variable-rate loans, as they stand to see their costs decrease in the coming months.
Market Insights: Will Lower Rates Revive the Housing Market?
Shaun Westlake, Vice President of Guiding Star Mortgage, shares a cautious view on the impact of the rate cuts on housing. According to Westlake, while the three consecutive rate reductions since June are a positive trend, their effect on home sales has been minimal so far. He notes that the 5-year fixed mortgage rates, which are influenced by the bond market, remain around the 5% range. The recent rate cuts were largely anticipated and have already been factored into current mortgage rates, limiting their immediate impact on affordability.
Westlake also highlights that many homeowners who secured low-rate mortgages during the pandemic may face financial strain when renewing at higher rates. This, coupled with ongoing affordability challenges, means that the recent rate cuts may not spark a significant resurgence in the housing market just yet. However, he anticipates that if rates continue to decline in the coming months, a stronger housing market could emerge by spring 2025.
CBC News, “Bank Interest Rate,” CBC.ca, https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-interest-rate-1.7312774, September, 2024.
Optimistic Outlook for Canada’s Housing Market
The future of the housing market in Canada looks promising, with expectations of further reductions potentially bringing the overnight rate down to 4.0% by year-end and 2.75% next year, mortgage rates are set to become more affordable. This could create valuable opportunities for both new homebuyers and those looking to refinance their existing loans.
For prospective buyers and current homeowners, the recent rate cuts offer significant advantages. Variable-rate mortgages are becoming more attractive, and existing homeowners can benefit from reduced monthly payments.
Overall, while the market faces some hurdles, the ongoing rate reductions are likely to set the stage for a more vibrant housing market in 2025. Staying informed and prepared will be key for Canadians looking to capitalize on these evolving opportunities.
Information Referenced From:
https://guidingstarmortgage.com/bank-of-canada-cuts-rates-another-quarter-point/
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-interest-rate-1.7312774
